Over the coming weeks there will be plenty of speculation about the Autumn Budget. Rather than join the noise, I thought I would share some thoughts on what a “perfect” budget might look like – not necessarily what will happen, but what might actually move the UK forward.

The Challenges Facing Developed Economies

One of the greatest challenges for developed economies is that infrastructure becomes tired and needs replacing. Roads, rail, energy systems, and hospitals are expensive to modernise, so governments often end up applying short-term fixes – “sticking plasters” – rather than making bold, long-term investments.

The NHS is a good example. Some commentators argue that it has been underfunded relative to demand since as far back as the 1960s. Recent research from The King’s Fund and the Health Foundation suggests that health spending per person in the UK is consistently below the average of comparable European countries. The result is pressure on services and staff, with higher waiting times and rising dissatisfaction.

Then there is the pensions challenge. The UK, like many countries, operates what some describe as the “world’s greatest Ponzi schemes” – unfunded public sector pensions (e.g. NHS, teachers, civil service). Those in retirement are supported by today’s workers, which works only as long as the working population remains large enough. But with an ageing population – the Office for National Statistics projects that by 2050 nearly a quarter of the UK population will be over 65 – the model becomes increasingly unsustainable.

The state pension faces similar pressures. The triple lock is politically popular, but the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has repeatedly warned that it is fiscally unsustainable over the long term.

Kicking the Can Down the Road

The uncomfortable truth is that none of this can be fixed without considerable pain. Successive governments have tended to “kick the can down the road,” delaying reform for fear of electoral backlash.

One idea that has been discussed globally is Universal Basic Income (UBI). The principle is simple: everyone receives a set amount regardless of income or wealth. In theory this simplifies welfare, replaces state pensions and benefits, and provides a secure base from which people can build. Trials in Finland, Canada, and even some UK local councils (such as in Wales) have shown that UBI can improve wellbeing, though critics question affordability and whether it reduces incentives to work.

Another area of comparison is tax. Germany, for example, operates a simplified system with a solidarity tax for infrastructure but no local or state taxes. Couples are taxed jointly, which can create a fairer balance for families. By contrast, the UK tax system is a patchwork: income tax, national insurance, VAT, council tax, stamp duty, corporation tax. Few other developed countries have such a complex array. The Office of Tax Simplification (now abolished) repeatedly highlighted how overly complicated the UK system has become.

At the same time, national insurance stops once people receive the state pension – yet with an ageing population this rule arguably makes little sense.

So What Could a Bold Budget Look Like?

If we were starting with a blank page, a radical budget could include:

• A reboot of the UK tax system – moving towards something closer to the German model, with a solidarity tax ring-fenced for infrastructure renewal.

• Simplified savings – merging pensions and ISAs into one long-term savings vehicle, with mandatory employer contributions of at least 10% p.a. (Australia’s Superannuation model is a good precedent here).

• Rental reform – given the rise of “Generation Rent,” policies to encourage longer tenancies, professional landlords, and greater supply of affordable housing.

• Universal Basic Income – replacing the complicated welfare and state pension system with a flat universal payment, simplifying administration and providing a safety net for all.

• Flat-rate Capital Gains Tax – removing distortions and loopholes while encouraging investment.

Conclusion

Of course, none of this is likely to happen in the upcoming budget. Politically, these ideas are too radical. But without structural change, we risk continuing with patchwork fixes – sticking plasters – while the underlying problems grow. The danger is not just fiscal; it is societal, with widening inequality, crumbling infrastructure, and intergenerational unfairness.

Sometimes the boldest option is the only sustainable one. The question is whether any government will ever be brave enough to take it.