The Cost of Chasing the “Next Big Thing”

We never chase the next big thing…
Or do we?

History suggests otherwise.

Tulip bulbs in 17th-century Holland.
Railroads in 19th-century America.
Technology stocks in the late 1990s.
More recently: crypto, AI, gold, thematic funds.

The labels change, but the behaviour doesn’t.

When Investing Quietly Becomes Speculation

The real danger isn’t innovation or new ideas, it’s speculation.

Speculation is not investing.
At its core, it’s closer to gambling.

We buy a lottery ticket knowing the odds are slim, but the chance of winning feels exciting. Over time, however, the reality is simple: the expected outcome is loss, sustained by the hope of a big payoff.

The same dynamic often plays out in markets.

We convince ourselves that this time is different. That we’ve spotted the opportunity early. That we can ride the wave and step off before it crashes.

Most people don’t.

The Dream of the Big Return

Earlier this month, I shared how there was a long period where my own portfolio barely moved in value. My approach at the time was to buy individual stocks I believed would do well, not recklessly, but with the hope that one or two would deliver the kind of returns that would meaningfully change my future.

That dream is seductive. We all imagine the 1,000% or 2,000% return.

But building a retirement plan or long-term financial security on that expectation is dangerous. For every headline success story, there are countless quiet failures that never get mentioned.

FOMO and the Stories We Tell Ourselves

This is where FOMO, fear of missing out, does the real damage.

We don’t compare ourselves to the average outcome. We compare ourselves to the few people who were lucky.

I remember hearing about someone who bought crypto and doubled their money. Encouraged by that success, a family member asked him to invest a significant sum on her behalf. Shortly afterwards, the investment fell by around 50%.

He didn’t know how to explain it.

Not because crypto is inherently “bad”, but because it is highly volatile, and volatility cuts both ways. Assets capable of extraordinary returns are usually capable of extraordinary losses too.

Behavioural finance consistently shows that people feel losses roughly twice as strongly as gains, which is why speculative losses often cause lasting regret.

Risk, Return and Reality

One of the hardest truths in investing is also one of the most important:

The highest potential returns usually come with the highest risks.

That doesn’t mean high-risk assets should never be used, but they need to be understood, proportionate, and placed in context.

By contrast, what often sounds boring tends to be effective.

A steady 5–10% per annum return, achieved through diversification, discipline, and patience, may not make headlines, but compounded over time, it is how wealth is typically built and sustained.

This approach:

• Avoids fads

• Reduces reliance on being “right”

• Accepts uncertainty rather than trying to outsmart it

Good portfolio discipline isn’t about excitement. It’s about consistency.

A Healthier Way to Think About Speculation

If you enjoy speculation, and many people do, the question isn’t whether you should speculate, but how.

A simple rule can help:

• Decide how much you can afford to lose

• Set it aside consciously as a “speculation pot”

• Keep it separate from your long-term plan

That way, speculative ideas don’t quietly take over decisions that are meant to support your future.

The Real Cost of the “Next Big Thing”

The cost of chasing the next big thing isn’t always financial. It’s also:

• Stress

• Poor timing

• Regret

• Loss of discipline

Long-term investing isn’t about avoiding opportunity. It’s about recognising that most wealth is built by staying invested, not by chasing stories.

And often, the most valuable decision you can make is to ignore the noise, and stick with a plan designed to work over decades, not months.